NBA best bets and odds: 4 expert picks, player props and predictions for Tue. 5/14

Pacers vs. Knicks

Tuesday, May 14, 8 p.m. ET, TNT
Pacers 1H +114 (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

The Pacers have led at halftime in every game in this series.

And following Game 4, there will be a temptation to bet them after a blowout win against a Knicks team that's finally cracking by appearing to look too short-handed.

But ultimately, the results are the results.

The Knicks are fading and the Pacers — as I've been saying all series long and even before it started — will be looking to speed New York up. If they control the pace, they'll mount yet another first-half lead.

Will it remain through the second? Not if the Knicks adjust, slow it down, remain somewhat intact and do the "let's shoot bad shots and get every offensive rebound" thing.

But for this bet, we're looking at the first half.

Pick: Pacers 1H ML (+114)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Tuesday, May 14, 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Wolves +4.5 (BetMGM)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

The home team has yet to win a game in this series. While that might not hold forever, there's reason to like the Wolves tonight heading back to Denver.

It’s not a must-win, but it’s a game that will drastically swing the momentum of the series, and I think the onus is on Minnesota to respond with a bang.

I have a trend that fits the Wolves in this spot and relates to that bounce-back momentum. Per Bet Labs, playoff teams that were favorites of -4 or greater and lost the previous game are 163-102-4 ATS since 2005, 39-17 since the bubble season and 7-3 this season.

This is a point too long for Denver, so I’ll take the Wolves to keep it close down to +3.5.

Pick: Wolves +4.5 (Play to +3.5)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Over 205.5 (BetRivers)

By Matt Moore

The game script reads like an over here.

The Nuggets have figured out a lot offensively against this Wolves defense, and Minnesota can now only start plugging holes.

Chris Finch talked about having to finally give up and guard Aaron Gordon more because he's been tearing them up. That's going to open up more Michael Porter Jr. 3-pointers and layups because the Wolves will have to space a defender out on him and it won't be Rudy Gobert.

That also means Gobert is likely to play Nikola Jokic more, and Jokic scores extremely efficiently against him.

But on the other side, the Wolves are likely to go smaller if they cut out Kyle Anderson, playing more wings and 3-point shooters while trying to match offense in the non-Jokic minutes, which they've lost in this series.

The Wolves have to push the pace to create easier buckets when Jokic isn't on the floor (and on the floor, honestly).

The offense has died on the bench; the Wolves are scoring 71 points per 100 possessions with Anderson on the floor, who I think will be cut from the rotation in this game.

I'll play the over here at 205.5 in a rare Game 5 offensive explosion.

Pick: Over 205.5

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Jaden McDaniels Over 10.5 Points + Assists (DraftKings)

By Matt Moore

This is a fade of Anderson.

The Nuggets have wrecked the Wolves — even in their losses — in the non-Jokic minutes. A big reason for that is that the Wolves have made two mistakes: They've played two bigs during the Gordon-at-the-5 minutes, and they've played Anderson, who has the second-worst net rating on the team.

Anderson only played six minutes in Game 4 and the Wolves were obliterated in them. It's just not his series.

This is the game where Finch changes his rotations. They need to go to one big and then they need to play more wings. I think we'll get 40+ minutes from Jaden McDaniels, barring foul trouble.

That's a concern, but I still think the odds are that he plays many minutes. He's struggled offensively, but he's starting to settle in a bit.

I want the points and assists play because it might be as simple as two corner 3s, a transition layup/dunk and three assists on extra passes in rotation or in transition.

Pick: Jaden McDaniels Over 10.5 Points + Assists (+120)